After Bitcoin’s sharp 30% drop from its recent peak of $126,000 on October 6th to the $81,000 range on November 22nd, many investors who entered the crypto market this year and are now sitting on losses are understandably asking what comes next. Instead of reacting to the panic and noise, I wanted to highlight a few perspectives from analysts whose views - in my eyes - offer a clearer and more grounded understanding of where the crypto market truly stands. From Lyn Alden’s macro-driven framework to Arthur Hayes’ liquidity-focused outlook, their insights help cut through the volatility and paint a more realistic picture of the road ahead.
Crypto News from Analysts: What Bitcoin’s 30% Drop Really Signals
In a recent episode of the What Bitcoin Did podcast, Lyn Alden, an American investment strategist and founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, explains why relying on outdated assumptions about Bitcoin’s market cycle can be dangerous. While Bitcoin may be the “fastest horse,” she stresses that smart investors don’t bet everything on a single asset. Gold, equities, and Bitcoin each behave differently across economic environments. Professionals diversify and size their positions carefully, while inexperienced investors tend to chase tops and overextend. Alden warns that expecting a dramatic blow-off top in 2025 could seriously hurt portfolios — not because Bitcoin is failing, but because investor assumptions are.
Is this a Bear Market or Just a Late-stage Shakeout?
Alden also points out that recent selling isn’t coming from “tourists,” but from long-term holders — a normal pattern in late-stage bull markets. What’s different this cycle is the unusually large pool of 5–7-year holders, whose distribution may be acting as the final shakeout before Bitcoin’s next major move. She also highlights that Bitcoin’s strongest competitor today isn’t gold but AI. With companies like Nvidia delivering immediate returns while Bitcoin may require patience until 2026, capital naturally flows toward the “sure thing.” For now, AI has temporarily taken over the “fastest horse” narrative.
On broader macro concerns, Alden reframes the discussion around a potential “REPO crisis.” This isn’t a repeat of 2019, she argues, but a structural turning point. Quantitative tightening is ending, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is flattening, and will gradually expand again. The change is subtle rather than dramatic — but powerful. As base liquidity stops shrinking and begins to rise, risk assets like Bitcoin gain a significant tailwind. Gold is already reacting, and treasuries are likely to follow. Alden believes this liquidity-driven macro shift — not the Bitcoin halving — will fuel the next multi-year bull run. She expects Bitcoin to return to six-figure territory in 2026 or 2027 as liquidity improves and risk appetite recovers.
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Signals Pointing to a Healthier Market Into December
Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to trade choppily below $90,000, but analysts see signs of stabilization rather than a deeper breakdown. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expects one final dip into the low $80,000s — a view he shared in a recent post on X - but he believes this support will hold as U.S. dollar liquidity improves and quantitative tightening ends on December 1. ETF inflows are returning, retail selling pressure is cooling, and Ethereum is regaining key technical levels. Together, these developments point to a healthier underlying market structure. Despite near-term volatility, improving liquidity, renewed institutional participation, and continued network growth suggest that both Bitcoin and Ethereum are building a credible base for recovery heading into December.
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