How Will This Crypto Cycle End? Three Possibilities

As Bitcoin hovers near key resistance levels, investors are wondering:
Is this the end of the current crypto cycle - or just another pause before the next move up?

There are three main views right now, each backed by respected analysts in the space.

1. The Bear Case – The Top Might Be In

Analyst Michael Nadeau (@JustDeauIt) believes Bitcoin may have already topped.
He notes that “there is no law that requires Bitcoin to continue on the ‘four-year cycle’ path we’ve historically followed.”
According to him, market volume is slowing, and new buyers aren’t showing up the way they did in earlier bull runs.

In another post, he points out that “Bitcoin long-term holders are distributing tokens back into the market for the 3rd time this cycle” — a sign that we might be entering a cooling phase where experienced investors take profits while retail interest fades.

2. The Traditional Cycle View – One More Push

Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) thinks the story isn’t over yet.
He expects Bitcoin to peak later this year, saying,
“Historically, Bitcoin finds a low in September of the post-halving year and then bounces into a market cycle top that occurs in Q4.”

Cowen points out that this pattern fits with Bitcoin’s usual four-year rhythm.
He also reminds followers that during the last cycle, “BTC dominance dropped briefly in November of the halving year, before one final surge in December.”
In other words, there might still be one last leg up before the next bear market starts.

3. The Super Bullish View – The Extended Cycle

Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) offers the most optimistic outlook.
He believes global liquidity is still strong and that AI-driven innovation is fueling new capital inflows.
In his words: “The 4-year cycle is now a 5-year cycle. Bitcoin should peak in 2026 — probably Q2.”

He also recently added, “Cycle could run into Q2 2026… stick to the program and DFTU,” implying that the best strategy might be to stay invested and not overthink short-term volatility.

A possible Fed rate cut in the coming days could support this idea by injecting more liquidity into the markets — potentially extending the current cycle.

So, What’s Most Likely?

All three scenarios make sense depending on your outlook.
If momentum keeps fading, Nadeau’s cautious stance may prove right.
If Bitcoin follows its usual pattern, Cowen’s late-2024 top could fit perfectly.
And if global liquidity really drives a new wave of investment, Raoul Pal’s 2026 scenario might win out.

For now, one thing is clear: the next few months will reveal whether this is the end of another four-year cycle - or the beginning of a much longer one.